3. The scale of need 3.1 One of the difficulties with estimating the number of potential ESOL learners is the lack of comprehensive, reliable data both on the numbers of people living in Britain whose first language is not English and how well they operate in English. 3.2 Research undertaken by the Institute of Education and MORI in 1995 for the Basic Skills Agency's report Lost Opportunities2 suggests that around 450,000 people living in the UK whose first language is not English have little command of the English Language. Estimates, extrapolated from the 1991 Census and Home Office figures, in a recent report on English Language as a Barrier to Employment, Training and Education3 commissioned by DfEE, suggest the current figure could easily be three times this. 3.3 The figures for citizenship applications granted and asylum seekers give some idea of the flow of potential new learners. 54,000 people were granted British citizenship in 1998: nearly 45 per cent on the basis of residence, nearly 35 per cent (over 18,000 people) on the basis of marriage and around 20 per cent were minor children. While the numbers granted citizenship vary from one year to the next the proportions of people in each category have remained stable over the last few years. 3.4 The number of asylum seekers has increased considerably in the last few years. In 1998, the most recent year for which complete figures are available, applications for asylum rose by 13,500 to 46,000; the provisional figures for 1999 stand at nearly 72,000. Lower numbers are eventually granted residence: in 1998, 5,300 or 17 per cent of decisions considered resulted in individuals being granted refugee status and 3,900 or 12 per cent granted exceptional leave to remain. 3.5 The Lost Opportunities research also showed significant differences between different linguistic groups. The proportion who reached a 'survival' or higher level was roughly three times as high in some groups as in others (see Table 2). Overall about one in four fell into the lowest category meaning that they could not, for example, fill in their names and addresses, understand a simple notice, read their child's school timetable or use a calendar and a further 50 per cent had survival skills only. Table 1 Footnotes 2. Lost Opportunities: The Language Skills of Linguistic Minorities in England and Wales. Carr-Hill, Passingham, Wolf and Kent, The Basic Skills Agency, 1996 3. English Language as a Barrier to Employment, Training and Education. Dr Philida Schellekens, DfEE (to be published)

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